Author: richard

How to choose the best cash ISA…

We all know that interest rates are at historic lows – and with them showing no sign of increasing in the near future, you could be forgiven for thinking that Cash ISAs would be quickly losing their popularity.

Despite the fact that even significant levels of saving don’t get much more than a few pounds in interest, more than eight million people in the UK pay into a cash ISA each year. Perhaps with good reason: if the last year has taught us anything, it’s that what you once thought impossible is this week’s ‘new normal.’. And in such uncertain times the value of a cash buffer cannot be underestimated.

It’s easy to think that when rates are so low it’s not worth the time and effort to shop around; to make sure that you’re getting the best cash ISA for you. We’d argue that’s a dangerous approach to take with any aspect of your financial planning. We’re happy to advise clients on the best available products, and clients doing the work themselves should be equally diligent.

Traditionally, the longer you lock your money away for the higher the interest rate. At the time of writing 1.25% is available on a cash ISA – but you need to deposit at least £1,000 and tie the money up for seven years. There are other rates above 1% – but they are typically five year fixed rates, and the simple fact is that most cash ISAs are paying a rate of interest below the current level of inflation.

So would you not be better off forgetting cash ISAs and simply putting your money in a savings account, retaining flexibility and easy access to your money?

We would almost always recommend making the most of your ISA allowances, purely because there is no way of knowing when the Government might withdraw or cut the personal savings allowance. As we saw in the recent Budget, the bill for the measures taken to support jobs and businesses during the pandemic will have to be paid at some point.

Once your money is in a cash ISA it is sheltered from the taxman indefinitely. If, for example, you wanted to move your savings into a stocks and shares ISA, putting it into a cash ISA now will protect the tax-free status of the money.

In summary, despite the historically low interest rates cash ISAs still have an important role to play as part of many savers’ and investors’ overall financial planning portfolio – and it is still worth doing the necessary research to find the best rate available. As the old saying goes, ‘Take care of the pennies…’

Could using a pension reduce higher rate tax payments?

At the beginning of March Chancellor Rishi Sunak presented his Budget. His aim: to chart a course out of the economic damage wrought by the pandemic. A year earlier he had said he would do “whatever it takes” to protect jobs and businesses. Twelve months on, with Government borrowing breaking all records, it is clear that it will take a very long time to pay the bill for “whatever it takes.”

One of the key measures in the Budget was the freezing of personal allowances: the higher 40% rate will be frozen at £50,270 from April 2021 to the 2025/26 tax year. This means that 5m people in the UK – roughly one in six taxpayers – will be paying higher rate tax by 2026 as wages rise with inflation. As many commentators pointed out, it looks like middle class savers will be paying the bill for the pandemic.

Is there any way to avoid this? Good news! – The answer is ‘yes.’ Putting more money into your pension will help you save for the future and avoid an increasing tax bill. This is because pension contributions attract tax relief at the same rate you pay income tax, meaning savers could effectively eliminate higher-rate tax bills by saving anything above £50,270 into their pensions.

Under the proposed tax freeze, someone now earning £49,000 whose pay rises by 3% per year will see their annual tax bill increase by £3,128 by 2026. However, if they put £500 per month into their pension, their tax bill will be just an extra £609 – despite them earning an extra £7,804 by the end of the Chancellor’s freeze.

What the freeze on thresholds – which also sees the basic rate threshold frozen at £12,570 – very clearly illustrates is the need for financial planning. This is not the place for complicated examples, but what is clear is that many people will enjoy significant pay rises over the next five years and will – without adequate financial planning advice – end up paying significantly more in tax.

It is worth pointing out that the freeze on thresholds also applies to inheritance tax, with that threshold frozen at £325,000. Many people will find themselves paying significantly more tax on their earnings and – without proper planning – seeing the value of their parents’ estates reduced by inheritance tax.

The Daily Telegraph described the tax rises in the Budget as ‘eye-watering,’ commenting that they take the UK back to levels of taxation not seen since the sixties. What’s clear is that the Chancellor’s decision to freeze thresholds to pay part of the bill for the pandemic makes long-term financial planning more important than it has ever been.

Could your face replace your bank card?

Once upon a time we bartered; we exchanged animal skins for meat and sold our labour for a square meal. Then, gradually, coins and paper money arrived. Banks became secure. We wrote cheques. We had a credit card in our pocket as the ads encouraged us ‘to take the waiting out of wanting.’

Debit cards arrived. The use of cash, significantly aided by the pandemic, started to dwindle. Most of us spent 2020 simply tapping our mobile phones if we wanted to pay for something.

But could even that technology soon be outdated? Is the next great payment ‘leap forward’ on the horizon? Is paying for something going to be easier and more convenient than we could ever have imagined? Or will it herald a leap forward for Big Brother as we start to pay for things not with our phones, or with our bank cards, but with our face…

All we would need to do is present our face in front of a scanner. If we needed to, we could even add a tip simply by waving our hand.

Science fiction? Years in the future?

No, millions around the world are already using the technology. The experts say that paying with our face won’t just be easy and convenient – it will also be inevitable.

As you might expect, the biggest advances are being made in the Far East. In China 98% of mobile payments go through Alipay, jointly owned by Alibaba and WeChat Pay. The two companies are now competing with each other in the facial recognition market.

Millions are being committed to the research, with Chinese state media suggesting that 760m people could be using facial recognition by next year.

On the West Coast of America, PopID is following a similar route. You sign up on the website, upload a photo of your face and then link the account to your bank card. Your photo is stored in the cloud, with the app already being used in restaurants and cafés in major cities.

PopID’s CEO John Miller says that using your face is no different to using your phone. “It’s just another way to identify yourself. The picture taken at point of sale is destroyed immediately.” Therefore, he argues, it is less intrusive than paying with your phone, which can track your movements via GPS.

There will, though, be inevitable privacy concerns. As the stories coming out of China testify, not every use of facial recognition is necessarily benign.

…And there could be another problem. Supposing you finally decide to do something about those bags under your eyes? Your double chin? Could our payments be declined because we suddenly look ten years younger? “I’m sorry, sir, your payment has been declined. Your face doesn’t fit…”

What is Bitcoin? And Could it Replace Cash?

In February, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and boss of carmaker Tesla, announced that his firm had bought $1.5bn (£1.1bn) of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and expects to start accepting it as payment in the future.

The announcement caused the price of Bitcoin to jump to $44,220 (£32,072) – a rise of 17% and a record high.

By any standards Bitcoin has richly rewarded those people who hold it: the cryptocurrency closed December 2019 at £5,400. In round figures it has risen six times in little more than a year, and at the time of writing has just broken through the $50,000 (£36,020) barrier.

But what is Bitcoin? What is a cryptocurrency? And could the fact that the world’s most valuable car company is now accepting it as payment mean that we’re well on the way to seeing the end of cash?

So what is a cryptocurrency? It is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange (like ‘real’ money), but it is not controlled by a central bank, and does not exist in physical form. There are no ‘Bitcoin notes’ and never will be. Records of ownership are stored digitally, using the strongest possible cryptography to secure ownership and transaction records.

There are several cryptocurrencies in existence, with Bitcoin far and away the most well-known. It was invented in 2008 and has been in use since 2009. There are now more than 100m Bitcoin wallets being used, with estimates that around 10% of Americans hold a wallet.

Bitcoin has plenty of critics, not least for the amount of electricity needed to produce it – in 2018 it was estimated that more energy was used in Iceland in ‘mining’ (creating) Bitcoin than was used by the entire Icelandic population to power their homes. It has also been derided as a ‘bubble’ that is bound to burst, and there are claims that it is used for money laundering and other illegal purposes.

What seems inevitable though, is that there will eventually be some form of widely accepted digital currency. Does this, therefore, mean that the days of cash are numbered?

The logical answer to that seems to be ‘very possibly.’ The great advantage of a digital currency – if you are the Chancellor of the Exchequer – is that transactions can be tracked. Paying your plumber in cash to save the VAT would simply not be possible with a digital currency. China is well on the way to becoming the first cashless society. Thousands of businesses in Sweden do not accept cash. And we have all used far less cash during the Covid-19 crisis.

Yet cash remains essential for many people: the elderly, those living in remote areas and those with poor credit histories who cannot get bank accounts, have all been cited as examples of people who need cash.

Cryptocurrencies, though, are only increasing in popularity. It is going to be an interesting struggle…

Budget 2021 Summary…

It is interesting to look back 12 months to Rishi Sunak’s first Budget: it was followed by a year none of us could have predicted or imagined.

The Conservatives had won a comfortable majority in the December 2019 General Election. As expected, Sajid Javid became Chancellor and, in January, announced that the Budget would take place on Wednesday March 3rd.

It was noted at one point last year that, ‘When Sajid Javid announced the date virtually no one had heard of Coronavirus. When he resigned in mid-February, it was something largely confined to China – there were just two cases in Italy.’

By the end of February, though, the potential economic impact of the virus was becoming clear, with all the world’s leading stock markets falling in the month. In March, the falls were to be even steeper – the FTSE 100 Index, for example, fell almost 14% from 6,581 at the end of February 2020 to 5,672 at the end of March.

Sajid Javid resigned and was replaced by Rishi Sunak – then 39 years old and the MP for Richmond in North Yorkshire. It was at first thought that the Budget might need to be postponed, but Sunak apparently impressed officials with his grasp of the detail and the Budget went ahead as planned. It seemed a fair description at the time to say that Rishi Sunak could hardly have delivered his first Budget in more difficult circumstances.

Fast forward to the here and now and the UK in the midst of a pandemic. The UK’s vaccination programme has, so far, been a success, but the last year has done more damage to the economy than any of us could imagine.

In his speech the Chancellor had to lay the groundwork for an economic recovery – and find a way to pay for the huge increase in borrowing required to pay for the support measures that have been put into place over the last 12 months. This was set up to be a classic ‘Budget of balance’. 

The economic background

Perhaps this year the economic background to the Budget can be told anecdotally as much as it can be told analytically. We all know of businesses that have closed over the past year; of shops that will never reopen, and of people – especially those under 25 – who haven’t worked for six months.

As the BBC reported last week, the jobless rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to December with the number of people on company payrolls in January 2021 down 726,000 on pre-Covid levels – almost 60% of those are under 25.

Looking at the last year as a whole, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted that the budget deficit – the gap between what the government receives and what it spends – would be £394bn for the 20/21 financial year. A report in Wednesday morning’s Guardian said that official figures put the deficit at £271bn for the first ten months of the year – suggesting that the final figure is expected to be below November’s estimate.

The OBR is also suggesting that unemployment will continue to rise, with many jobs still cushioned by the furlough scheme (which, as we detail below, was extended to September 2021). The number of individuals furloughed at the end of January stood at 4.7m.

As many readers will know, the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 9.9% in 2020 – the worst performance for 300 years – and the economy remains under pressure as lockdown of some form continues. However, there are some grounds for optimism, with the economy doing better than expected in November as businesses learned to adapt, and it may be that the swift pace of the vaccine roll-out allows the OBR and the Chancellor to be more optimistic than they might previously have been.

The political background

In the recent past, the Budget has been presented against a rather fevered political backdrop, whether that was a Government with a wafer-thin majority, an election to win or a Brexit deal to negotiate – all with their consequent political intrigues.

This year, despite the obvious societal and economic tumult created by the pandemic, the political waters are actually rather calmer. Boris Johnson has recovered from his own brush with COVID-19, there are no leadership coups in the offing and the UK has finally left the European Union. The Prime Minister has promised a future independent inquiry into how the Government handled the pandemic but, for now, the court of public opinion appears to side with Boris Johnson and his team. With more and more people being vaccinated, the Government currently has an 8% lead in the latest Survation poll: the Conservatives are on 42% with Labour on 34%.

Not that this stopped the usual calls to ‘cut spending’ or ‘raise taxes’ in the run up to the Budget speech. A popular view amongst both Tory MPs and some in the opposition parties was that Sunak should do neither, and instead prioritise growth. In particular, he should leave the rate of Corporation Tax unchanged at 19%, giving the UK a competitive economy and – effectively – relying on a booming economy to pay the bill for COVID-19 and, ultimately, re-balance the Government books.

So it was that the Chancellor posed with his Treasury team and the traditional red box, and then set off for the Commons to deliver his speech.

The speech

Opening remarks
The Chancellor rose to speak in a socially distanced House of Commons at 12:36, with the speech having already been hailed by Boris Johnson as a “roadmap for freedom” and a “Budget for recovery.”

The pandemic had, said the Chancellor, “fundamentally altered our way of life” and done “acute” damage to the economy as he noted the 700,000 jobs lost and the near 10% fall in GDP. Borrowing was the highest it had been “outside of wartime.”

The numbers

The Chancellor started this section optimistically: “the forecasts show our plans are working,” he said, saying that the OBR now expected a “swifter and more sustained recovery” than they had forecast in November, with the economy returning to its pre-Covid level by the middle of 2022, six months earlier than had been forecast.

The OBR was expecting economic growth of 4% this year, followed by 7.3% in 2022 – followed by a return to rather more ‘normal’ levels of 1.7%, 1.6% and then 1.7% again in 2025.

Unemployment had been forecast to peak at 11.9%: now the OBR was predicting 6.5% “meaning that 1.8m fewer people will be out of work.”

Dealing with government spending

Whilst the Chancellor’s opening largely dealt with support for individuals and businesses, you always felt there was a ‘but’ coming…

The pandemic had presented, “huge challenges for the public finances,” the Chancellor said, with levels of borrowing only previously seen in the two World Wars. Borrowing this year would be a peacetime record of £355bn, falling to £234bn in 2021/22, higher than the worst year of the financial crisis. Borrowing will be 4.5% of GDP in the 2022/23 tax year.

The Chancellor declined to set any specific targets in the Budget, but rather set out three principles for what he saw as ‘sustainable public finances.’

First of all, he said, it was right that the state should help – but that in normal times the state should not borrow to meet everyday public spending. Secondly, he needed to be constantly aware of the level of debt and its affordability; thirdly, while it was right to take advantage of the current low interest rates, there was no guarantee that these would continue, or that there wouldn’t be a similar crisis in the future. Therefore, the debt needed to be dealt with now.

We’ve detailed the specific policies announced as part of the Chancellor’s approach in the appropriate sections of this document.

Protecting jobs and livelihoods

Rather than going through a long list of economic numbers, the Chancellor was into the main part of his speech within five minutes. As everyone had been expecting, he began by announcing the extension of the furlough scheme to September, along with other economic measures designed to combat the effects of the pandemic on individuals and households.

What The vaccination programme.
When Immediately.
Comment Perhaps of most immediate concern and interest, and the longest term benefit to our jobs and livelihoods, was the Chancellor’s further £1.6bn commitment to the roll out of the vaccination programme.

What The furlough scheme is extended.
When Until the end of September.
Comment Employees on furlough will continue to receive 80% of their pre-Covid income, with employers paying 10% in July and 20% in August and September.

What More help for the self-employed.
When Until the end of September.
Comment Like the extension of the furlough scheme, this was expected, with the self-employed to get a fourth grant of up to 80% of their pre-Covid income, covering February-April and available to be claimed from April. A fifth grant will cover May-September and be available from late July.

Rishi Sunak said that “it was fair to target those most affected by the pandemic” and so those whose turnover has fallen by more than 30% will receive the full grant, while those whose turnover has fallen by a smaller amount will receive a 30% grant.

The scheme was also extended to the newly self-employed who submitted a tax return for 2019/2020 by midnight on 2nd March, meaning that an extra 600,000 people are now eligible for the scheme. In total, said the Chancellor, “£33bn has been spent in supporting the self-employed.”

What Support for low income households – the extra £20 per week on Universal Credit will be continued.
When Immediately, for an extra six months.
Comment In addition to the above, those receiving Working Tax Credit will also receive a one-off payment of £500, to provide them with equivalent support.

What The National Living Wage will rise to £8.91.
When From April.
Comment The Chancellor described this as a “£350 pay rise” for those working full time on the NLW and reaffirmed his commitment to work coaches and kick-start schemes in a bid to get people back into work.

Personal taxation and allowances

As expected, the Chancellor confirmed that he would not raise the rates of income tax, national insurance or VAT. But you knew there was a ‘but’ coming. Freezing allowances is often seen as a ‘stealth tax’, raising tax income without explicitly raising taxation levels.

What Personal Allowance and higher rate threshold (HRT).
When The income tax Personal Allowance will rise with CPI as planned to £12,570 from April 2021, but will then remain at this level until April 2026.
Comment The Personal Allowance applies across the UK. The HRT for savings and dividend income will also apply UK-wide. The HRT for non-savings and non-dividend income will apply to taxpayers in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

What Inheritance tax nil-rate band and residence nil-rate band.
When Will remain at existing levels until April 2026.
Comment The nil-rate band will continue at £325,000, the residence nil-rate band will continue at £175,000, and the residence nil-rate band taper will continue to start at £2m. Qualifying estates can continue to pass on up to £500,000 and the qualifying estate of a surviving spouse or civil partner can continue to pass on up to £1m without an inheritance tax liability.

What Capital Gains Tax Annual Exempt Amount (AEA) uprating.
When The AEA will be maintained at the present level until April 2026.
Comment This is the value of gains that a taxpayer can realise before paying Capital Gains Tax. It will remain at £12,300 for individuals, personal representatives and some types of trusts and £6,150 for most trusts.

What National Insurance contributions (NICs) thresholds.
When Until April 2026.
Comment As previously announced in February 2021, in 2021-22 NICs thresholds will rise with CPI, bringing the NICs Primary Threshold/Lower Profits Limit to £9,568 and the Upper Earnings Limit (UEL)/Upper Profits Limit (UPL) to £50,270, in line with the income tax HRT.
The UEL/UPL will then remain aligned with the HRT at £50,270 until April 2026. NICs thresholds apply across the UK.

What Pensions Lifetime Allowance.
When Will remain at the current level of £1,073,100 until April 2026.
Comment Another opportunity for the Chancellor to generate income as this freeze means that more people risk falling foul of pension tax charges.

Pensions and savings

What An introduction of a green retail savings product through NS&I.
When Summer 2021.
Comment All UK savers will get the chance to support green projects through what the Chancellor described as a ‘retail green savings bond’ – it is thought there will be around £15bn in green gilt issuance – designed to help the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050. It will be available through NS&I.

What Individual Savings Account (ISA) annual subscription limit.
When April 2021.
Comment The adult ISA annual subscription limit for 2021-22 will remain unchanged at £20,000.

What Junior ISA and Child Trust Fund.
When April 2021.
Comment The annual subscription limit for Junior ISAs and Child Trust Funds for 2021-22 will remain unchanged at £9,000.

What More investment flexibility for pensions.
When No clear date.
Comment There will also be consultations by the FCA into investment rules for pension schemes post-Covid, to “give the industry more flexibility to unlock billions of pounds from pension funds into innovative new ventures.”

An initiative that is more likely aimed at large pension funds than individual savers.

Business investment and taxation

The Chancellor acknowledged that not all changes to business taxation would be popular – but they were ‘honest’ he said – and preferable to finding savings from the public services. This was a “fiscally responsible, business-friendly government” and he wanted businesses to invest “right now” as he looked to unlock a potential £20bn of business investment through a series of measures.

What Corporation tax will increase to 25%.
When From April 2023.
Comment This move had been widely expected, but there were some mitigating factors. Companies with profits below £50,000 will continue to be taxed at the current rate of 19%, with the full rate only being payable on profits above £250,000, with tapering between those two points. This means that around 70% of companies will be completely unaffected, with – according to the Chancellor – only 10% of companies paying the full rate.
He also made the tax treatment of losses more generous, allowing businesses to carry back losses of up to £2m for up to three years.

What The ‘Super Deduction’.
When From 1st April 2021 until 31st March 2023.
Comment This could be seen as the Chancellor’s ‘rabbit out of a hat’. As Rishi Sunak said, it is easiest to explain with an example.

The super deduction allows a company buying equipment to reduce their taxable profits by 130% of the cost of that equipment – so a construction company buying £10m of equipment could previously reduce their taxable income by £2.6m. With the super deduction they can now reduce their taxable profits by £13m.

It is hard to see how companies won’t take advantage of what the Chancellor described as “the biggest business tax cut in modern history.”

What Freeports.
When Late 2021.
Comment The Chancellor ended the speech by announcing eight freeports. A policy which, he said, “would bring investment, trade and jobs.” The freeports – benefiting from simpler planning, cheaper tariffs and tax breaks to encourage construction and investment – would be in Teesside, East Midlands Airport, Felixstowe and Harwich, the Humber, Liverpool City Region, Plymouth, Solent and the Thames.

What Restart grants.
When April 2021.
Comment The Chancellor announced a series of ‘re-start grants’ for businesses to help them re-open. There will be grants of up to £6,000 for non-essential retail premises, with hospitality businesses and gyms getting up to £18,000.

What Recovery loan scheme.
When From 6th April 2021.
Comment The new ‘recovery loans’ will replace the Bounce Back loan scheme, with businesses able to apply for loans of between £25,000 and £10m, with the Government guaranteeing 80% of the loan. The scheme will be open to all businesses, including those who have already received support under the existing COVID-19 guaranteed loan schemes.

What Business rates holiday.
When From 1st April 2021 to 30th June 2021.
Comment This will be followed by 66% business rate relief for the period July 1st 2021 to 31st March 2022, capped at £2m per business for properties that were required to be closed on 5th January 2021, or £105,000 per business as other eligible properties.

Reportedly when combined with Small Business Rates Relief, this means 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties in England will pay no business rates for 3 months from 1st April 2021, with the vast majority of eligible businesses receiving 75% relief across the year.

What Reduced VAT rates for hospitality and tourism.
When Immediately.
Comment The 5% reduced rate of VAT for the hospitality and tourism sectors was extended until the end of September, with a tapered rate of 12.5% then applying until the normal 20% rate comes back into force from April 2022.

What VAT Deferral New Payment Scheme.
When From March 2021.
Comment Any business that took advantage of the original VAT deferral on VAT returns from 20th March through to the end of June 2020 can now opt to use the VAT Deferral New Payment Scheme to pay that deferred VAT in up to eleven equal payments from March 2021, rather than one larger payment due by 31st March 2021 as originally announced.

What VAT thresholds to remain unchanged.
When Until at least 1st April 2022.
Comment The level at which companies need to register and deregister for VAT will not change. While the Chancellor was at pains to stress that the VAT threshold remains far higher than in most other countries (where they have a similar tax) it is easy to see a resurgent economy leading to many more businesses needing to register for VAT.

What Help to Grow: Management & Digital.
When As soon as is practical, likely to begin in the Autumn.
Comment Help with business training had been widely trailed, but the Chancellor perhaps went further than many people had expected, introducing a scheme which will help “tens of thousands” of businesses to get management training through executive development and peer learning, with the Government paying 90% of the cost.

There will also be ‘Help to Grow Digital,’ which will allow small businesses to develop digital skills and to get a 50% discount on software which will enhance productivity up to £5,000 each.

What The incentive payment for every new apprentice is to be doubled to £3,000.
When From 1st April 2021.
Comment Employers who hire a new apprentice between 1st April 2021 and 30th September 2021 will receive £3,000 per new hire, compared with £1,500 per new apprentice hire (or £2,000 for those aged 24 and under) under the previous scheme.

The government will also provide an additional £126m in England for high quality work placements and training for 16-24 year olds in the 2021/22 academic year. Employers who provide trainees with work experience will continue to be funded at a rate of £1,000 per trainee.

What Preventing abuse of R&D tax relief.
When April 2021.
Comment The amount of R&D tax relief SMEs can receive in one year will be capped at £20,000 plus three times the company’s total PAYE and NICs liability.

What Income tax exemptions for COVID-19 tests and home office expenses.
When Extended to the 2021-22 tax year.
Comment The government will extend the income tax exemption and NICs disregard for COVID-19 antigen tests provided by, or reimbursed by, employers and for employer reimbursed expenses covering the cost of home office equipment, to the 2021-22 tax year.

What Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) Rebate Scheme.
When Immediately.
Comment Small and medium-sized employers across the UK will continue to be able to reclaim up to two weeks of eligible SSP costs per employee. This scheme is a temporary COVID-19 measure intended to support employers while levels of sickness absence are high.

Other measures

Housing
What Stamp duty.
When Extended from March until the end of September.
Comment “Housing,” said the Chancellor, “is responsible for 500,000 jobs.” Therefore he was extending the current reduction in stamp duty, with the £500,000 nil rate band now applying until the end of June. The nil rate band would then be £250,000 until the end of September, at which point the normal threshold of £125,000 would come back into play.

What A new mortgage guarantee scheme.
When From April 2021.
Comment The Chancellor also announced a new mortgage guarantee scheme, with lenders who provide a mortgage to homebuyers who can only afford a 5% deposit benefitting from a government guarantee on those loans. This will apply on home values of up to £600,000 with a number of leading lenders having already signed up to the scheme.

“Generation rent,” declared Sunak in the most predictable line of the speech, would become “generation buy.”

The UK’s infrastructure
What Airports and Ground Operations Support Scheme.
When Renewed from April 2021.
Comment The government is renewing the Airports and Ground Operations Support Scheme for a further six months from the start of 2021-22.

The scheme provides support for eligible businesses in England up to the equivalent of half of their business rates liabilities during 2021-22, capped at £4m per claimant.

What The UK’s first ever infrastructure bank.
When Spring 2021.
Comment The Chancellor announced the first ever UK Infrastructure Bank, which will be based in Leeds and start with £12bn of capital as it looks to finance a targeted total £40bn of public and private infrastructure projects. This went hand in hand with a new remit for the Bank of England, part of which will be the transition to ‘net zero.’

Excise duties

What Alcohol and fuel duties.
When April 2021.
Comment Alcohol duties were frozen for the second year in a row, while the rise in fuel duty was once again cancelled. Mind you, the Chancellor could afford to do that. According to the OBR, increased drinking during lockdown means that alcohol duties will bring in £800m more than expected in the 20/21 financial year.

What Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) for HGVs.
When From August 2021.
Comment To support the haulage sector and pandemic recovery efforts, the government will freeze HGV VED for 2021-22 and will suspend the HGV Levy for another 12 months from August 2021.

What Vehicle Excise Duty (VED).
When From 1st April 2021.
Comment VED rates for cars, vans and motorcycles will increase in line with RPI.

Education

What Funding for supporting ‘lost learning’.
When No confirmed date.
Comment £700m of further funding was announced to help young people in England catch up on lost learning as a result of COVID-19.

This new package includes a one-off £300m Recovery Premium for state primary and secondary schools, £200m to expand tutoring programmes and deliver early language support, and £200m for secondary schools to deliver face-to-face summer schools.

The environment

A range of specific environmental measures were announced, including:
● £20m programme to support the development of floating offshore wind technology across the UK.
● The launch of a new £68m UK-wide competition to implement several first-of-a-kind energy storage prototypes or technology demonstrators.
● A £4m UK-wide competition for the first phase of a biomass feedstocks programme, to support the rural economy in making improvements to the production of green energy crops and forestry products.
Banking
● Banks will now be allowed to support single contactless payments up to £100, and cumulative contactless payments up to £300, without the need for customers to input their chip and pin. The banking industry will implement the new limits later this year.

Conclusion

Rishi Sunak was always at pains to stress that he would be ‘open and honest’ in his Budget speech. He finished as he finished last year – paying tribute to the skill, generosity and determination of the British people and commending his Budget to the House. “We are at a moment of challenge and change,” he said. “This is a Budget that meets that moment.”
The Adam Smith Institute welcomed the headline-grabbing super deduction which, they said, would ‘induce investment into Britain’s factories and help the economy bounce back.’ However, they criticised what they saw as ‘the silliness of the mortgage guarantee.’

The Centre for Policy Studies was broadly more supportive, welcoming ‘a business led recovery.’
The combination of business rate reductions, investment incentives and other measures should help business and the economy rebound powerfully in the next few years. But there is a danger of a cliff edge later as support is withdrawn and taxes increased – or that business will anticipate higher taxes and fail to invest.

That may be it in a nutshell. The Chancellor can do so much but – as George Osborne always stressed – there are so many outside events he cannot control. Rishi Sunak has done what he can: he now needs the vaccine rollout to continue to be successful, the British people to spend as they have never spent before, China and the US not to have another trade war…

The list goes on. Eight months from now the Chancellor will be presenting his Autumn Statement to the House of Commons and, depending on the impact of the vaccination programme and the economic measures announced to date, we may see yet more measures designed to encourage investment and rebuild the public purse.

Managing your mental health in unprecedented times…

During January, an intensive care consultant was interviewed for a local news broadcast. He was asked about the mental health of his team during the current pandemic and he tellingly replied that while the situation was bad now, he thought the worst time for mental health would be when the crisis was over.

We’ve all been there, running on adrenalin to clear our desks before we go on holiday, only to relax when we get there, metaphorically letting our guard down and getting struck by a bug.

Who knows what sort of adrenalin the ICU staff and other front-line workers are running on right now. But it’s not just them, lockdown is proving difficult for millions of people. Juggling work, childcare and a relationship, finding that working from home isn’t quite the same after the novelty has worn off, not seeing loved ones or, for some people, not seeing anyone at all.

It may not be just ICU staff that will face mental health problems when the pandemic is over – it may be a great many more of us.

So what steps can we take now to look after our mental health and to make sure that we come out of the crisis with optimism?

Here are three simple ideas that might help:

Micro-lifts

Psychologists call them ‘micro-lifts’; those small moments in the day that lift our spirits. It might be popping into your favourite coffee shop or a chance meeting with someone you haven’t seen for a while.

When working from home and only allowed one period of exercise a day these ‘micro-lifts’ just don’t happen. That’s why it’s important to schedule a Zoom call with friends, connect with people through book clubs perhaps, or to learn a new skill during lockdown, all activities that will replace the ’micro-lifts’ that are missing.

Maintaining a Healthy routine

It almost goes without saying that eating healthily and exercising regularly are important. They’re vital at any time but especially so now. Keep your kitchen stocked with nutritious food from the five core groups and plan out your week. Allocate time for meal breaks based on your regular eating routine.

Connect with nature

Finally, engage with nature. Stephen Buckley, from the mental health charity Mind, says that getting out into nature is crucial, whether that is the great outdoors (insofar as we’re allowed to), your garden or – if it is all you have – your balcony.

Even looking out of the window at the birds or tending to houseplants can be good for you. And, of course, if you’re looking at the birds, you may as well open the window and let some fresh air into the room…

Worrying about saving enough for retirement is more common than you may think…

Determining how much you need to save for the retirement you want can be difficult enough without actually having to save the money. Your requirements and desires will change over time in the same way that your income is likely to fluctuate. You can’t be expected to know exactly what you’ll need in 5 years time, let alone 20 or 30, depending on where you are in your journey towards retirement.

As we’ve seen from the events of 2020, even the safest predictions can be subject to unexpected outcomes. It appears that this uncertainty is reflected in the minds of savers, according to Schroders 2020 Global Investor Study.

Determining how much you need to save for the retirement you want can be difficult enough without actually having to save the money. Your requirements and desires will change over time in the same way that your income is likely to fluctuate. You can’t be expected to know exactly what you’ll need in 5 years time, let alone 20 or 30, depending on where you are in your journey towards retirement.

As we’ve seen from the events of 2020, even the safest predictions can be subject to unexpected outcomes. It appears that this uncertainty is reflected in the minds of savers, according to Schroders 2020 Global Investor Study.

The study is an independent survey of over 23,000 investors from 32 different locations globally, and responses were collected between 30th April and 15th June 2020. The study suggests that 41% of investors across the world fear that they will not have enough savings to fund their retirement. The time at which the survey took place may be a factor itself as to why some respondents feared a savings shortfall. Whilst responses were being collected the Coronavirus pandemic was in full swing, subsequently upheaving previously held notions of job security and general stability. There were, however, specific answers within the survey which point to more definite reasons as to why people are worried about their retirement savings.

When asked if they believe that the state provided pension in their country was not enough to live off, 55% agreed. In fact, only 19% thought that it was sufficient.

This view can likely be attributed in no small part to constantly shifting pension rules, which leave many expectant retirees stumped as to what they should prepare for. In fact, 41% of investors agreed that the adapting of rules by governments led them to the conclusion of not seeing the point in trying to save specifically for their retirement.

Having a plan can be helpful. If you have any concerns about your own pension or retirement savings, you may benefit from seeking the advice of a professional. Feel free to get in touch with me and let us explore the options that are available to you.

Can money really buy happiness?

Some people say money can’t buy you love. They also say it can’t buy you happiness. But what if it could? Thanks to extensive research into both human behaviour and psychology, we can come to understand the objects and experiences that contribute most to people’s happiness. We can also decipher how to get our hands on these objects and experiences, and what that might cost us.

The debate over the path to happiness is perhaps one best left to the philosophers and poets rather than those seeking a quantifiable answer. What we can do, however, is look at the research that exists and see what conclusion it points to in terms of how our spending affects our enjoyment of life.

Put simply, not all purchases are created equal. The same £100 can have a wildly different impact on our happiness, both short and long term, depending on what we choose to do with it.

There is, for example, research to suggest that intangible experiences, such as a holiday, a special meal at your favourite restaurant or a trip to the theatre can actually provide joy for longer than a physical object that would remain in your possession long after the final curtain call. Amit Kumar is an assistant professor of marketing and psychology at the University of Texas whose research focuses on the science of happiness. Kumar explains that, “experiences are fleeting, but not in a psychological sense. They live on in our memories, they live on in the stories we tell.” This statement is shown to be true in research conducted by Carter and Gilovich, published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in 2010. The study demonstrates that while the satisfaction gained from the purchase of a material item tends to decrease over time, the opposite is true with purchases of experiences.

This doesn’t just apply to large purchases either, you don’t need to take a round-the-world trip to feel the benefits of experiential purchases. As Thomas Gilovich, who is a professor of psychology at Cornell University puts it; “these kinds of experiences don’t demand a giant bank account.” Gilovich is also keen to point out that material purchases aren’t inherently bad, they don’t necessarily make you less happy, but, “if you shift your expenditures a bit more in the experiential direction and a bit less in the material direction, you’ll be happier.”

10 Key Questions for 2021…

2020 was a year like no other. ‘Lockdown’ became the Word of the Year and millions of people were forced to work from home.

Now it looks like we are back to square one. As we write on the morning of January 5th the UK is beginning its third national lockdown and being locked down in the cold and dark of January may be very different to the sunshine of early Spring.

…And yet – as we hope this special report for our clients will show – there are plenty of grounds for optimism. We have looked back at ten of the major stories and events of 2020 and looked forward to how they might develop in the coming year and beyond. We hope you enjoy the report – but please remember that it is only commentary and opinion. It should not be taken as specific financial planning advice.

How are we going to pay for Covid-19? 

November was another month when borrowing by the UK Government was at an all-time high. According to the Office for National Statistics borrowing was £31.6bn, the highest November figure on record.

As we enter another lockdown, business leaders are demanding more cash for hard pressed businesses. There will unquestionably be calls for the furlough scheme to continue beyond April. And sooner or later the Government is going to find that a great many of the Bounce Back loans it has guaranteed are not going to come anywhere near to bouncing back.

So how will it all be paid for? we suspect that – like the infamous PPI saga – the bill for Covid-19 will simply go on increasing. The Adam Smith Institute are suggesting that every week of lockdown costs the taxpayer £6bn and reduces economic activity by £5bn. The only way the Chancellor can ever hope to pay for it is not – as has been suggested, by one-off tax raids – but by building a vibrant, growing economy. Hopefully we will see the first steps towards that in Rishi Sunak’s Spring Budget.

What’s happened with Brexit?

December variously saw the UK and EU ‘in the last chance saloon’ for ‘one final throw of the dice.’ There was ‘a huge gulf between the two sides’ and then came ‘Le Bust-Up.’ The month was truly a headline-writer’s dream but – as we all suspected – a deal was eventually done and, some 4½ years after the Referendum, the UK severed its ties with the EU at 11pm on December 31st.

What next? The TV companies duly dispatched camera crews to Dover on January 1st but, given that it was a bank holiday, there was little to report. The truth is that it will take some time for the full impact of Brexit to be known. There will be advantages and disadvantages: most people’s perceptions of whether their glass is half-full or half-empty will still depend on how they voted in June 2016.

You suspect that, in the short-term at least, there will be an end to the bickering. Both the UK and the EU need to deal with Covid-19 and both have economies to rebuild – and the ever-present threat of China to contend with.

It will be interesting to see how the UK’s relations with the Biden administration develop. Biden himself is fiercely proud of his Irish roots and is almost certainly a supporter of a united Ireland: he may well side with the EU in any dispute over Northern Ireland.

Will UK Retail ever Recover?

2020 was the worst year for high street job losses in 25 years. The collapse into administration of Debenhams, Arcadia and many other chains has been well-documented. This trend only looks set to continue – retail footfall was down 60% on Boxing Day, traditionally one of the busiest shopping days of the year.

If Covid-19 has done anything it has accelerated trends that might otherwise have taken 20 to 30 years to arrive – not the least of which is us all buying everyday items from Amazon that we would normally have bought on the high street.

When Rishi Sunak became Chancellor it was widely supposed that all he needed to do to revive the high street was reform business rates. Covid-19 has demonstrated that the problems go far deeper than that, and it is difficult to be optimistic. Small, market towns with local shops and loyal customers will, you suspect, be fine. Cities may find a way to survive. The towns in the middle – those with a Debenhams, a Top Shop, a Boots, a barely-viable M&S – may have some very difficult years ahead.

Will Boris Johnson still be PM at the end of the year?

On December 12th 2019 – little more than a year ago – Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to an 80 seat majority in the General Election. He was 55 at the time – and with the ‘Red Wall’ having turned blue, there seemed little doubt that he would lead his party to another election victory and remain at 10 Downing Street into his 60s.

Then, of course, Covid-19 struck, with Johnson himself spending time in intensive care. With the PM clearly taking time to recover, and the response to the pandemic deemed less than successful, Chancellor Rishi Sunak was mooted as a possible successor. Former leadership challenger Jeremy Hunt was another name mentioned.

…But with his health seemingly restored and the Brexit negotiations completed, Johnson’s position now seems much more secure. The Conservatives are back in front in the polls: Conservative Home’s headline this morning is ‘Johnson’s position is stronger than it looks.’ And if he should fall under the proverbial bus? Our money would be not on Sunak or Hunt, but on International Trade Secretary Liz Truss, who has secured an impressive number of post-Brexit free trade deals.

Who is Joe Biden and what can we expect?

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr first entered the US Senate in 1973. Nearly 50 years later he is poised to become the 46th President of the United States, with the inauguration scheduled for January 20th (when we confidently expect the 45th President to be playing golf).

Biden – who will be 78 when he assumes office – was Barack Obama’s Vice-President and if early appointments are any guide, many of his key advisers will be diehards from the Clinton and Obama administrations. Former Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will be his Treasury Secretary, for example.

If reports are to be believed Biden will pledge a $7tn (£5.3tn) ‘recovery package’ for the US economy. We can also expect the US to re-join the Paris Climate Accord, with Biden being far more sympathetic to climate change than his predecessor. He supports a minimum wage of $15 (£11.03) per hour, and he will look to expand ‘Obamacare’ and undo as many of Trump’s policies as possible.

The key question, of course, is will he see out his term as President? His Vice-President, Kamala Harris, is 56 and was formerly a member of the Senate for California. She is generally held to be to the left of Biden on many issues.

Will we say goodbye to Vladimir Putin in 2021?

2020 saw Russian President Vladimir Putin cementing his hold on power and – like Xi Jinping in China – pave the way to becoming ‘President for life.’ Now it appears that may not be the case: the last two months of the year saw rumours circulate about Putin’s health, with suggestions that he might step down this month.

The Kremlin has denied claims that Putin is to quit, and that he might be suffering from Parkinson’s Disease. State officials say that the President is in ‘excellent’ health, while the rumours insist his family have urged him to stand down in the New Year. A Russia without Vladimir Putin would be one of the more interesting stories of 2021…

What are we going to do about China?

China has spent much of the last two years in an ongoing trade dispute with the US. It is likely that relations will be warmer with the incoming Biden administration than with Donald Trump, but tensions will remain. There are plenty of arguments with other countries as well – with India over the disputed border territory, and an ongoing trade spat with Australia to name just two.

What is undeniable is that China’s power and influence continues to grow. November brought the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which saw 15 countries – including Australia and New Zealand – form the world’s largest trading bloc, covering nearly a third of the global economy. Throw in the now well-established ‘Belt and Road’ trading initiative, and China’s influence can only continue to grow. Accusations of spying and influence will increase and more disputes with other countries – both on the ground and in cyberspace – are inevitable in the years ahead.

Is Germany facing a year of upheaval?

Angela Merkel has been Chancellor of Germany for almost as long as any of us can remember. She is currently due to stand down before the federal elections in September 2021. With Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer having fallen by the wayside the likeliest candidate now seems to be Markus Sőder, the Bavarian state premier.

But the CDU are facing challenges, not just from the right-wing Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD), but from a new protest group. The Querdenker (German for ‘lateral thinkers’) have brought thousands on to the streets in protest against lockdown. The government has high approval ratings at the moment, but much could change by September.

As always it is the German engine driving the European economy, and it continues to produce a healthy trade surplus of around €20bn (£18.1bn) a month. But there is increasing pressure to see this surplus rebuild the economy and infrastructure of Germany, rather than that of Spain, Italy or Greece.

Who will be the Economic Winners and Losers?

In terms of winners, the short answer, according to a recent article in City AM, is India. The writer suggested that continuing tensions with China would push India increasingly towards the incoming Biden administration, with the country reaping the consequent economic benefits.

India is now on course to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030, with China now forecast to overtake the US by 2028. A recent economic league table had the UK moving back up to 5th in the world, with the Centre for Economic and Business Research saying the UK had climbed back above India (for now) and would steadily pull away from France over the next ten years.

Despite the pandemic there are certainly grounds for optimism in the UK. The roll-out of the vaccine has seen business confidence reach its highest level for nine months (although that survey was, admittedly, before the latest lockdown) and three-quarters of businesses say they plan to hire new staff next year.

To give just one example, the start-up company Britishvolt recently announced that it had chosen Blyth in the North East as the site of the UK’s first ever battery ‘gigaplant,’ producing lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles. The plant will employ 3,000 people, with a further 5,000 jobs created in the supply chain.

The road out of the pandemic will not be a smooth one, but talking to clients and other owners and directors of SMEs we detect a real determination to recover and recover quickly. To paraphrase what has quickly become a cliché, to build their businesses back better.

What does all this mean for my Savings and Investments?

If we had told you at the beginning of 2020 that the world would be hit by a global pandemic, that large parts of our economies would be closed for months and that we’d still be battling the pandemic at the end of the year you would – entirely justifiably – have concluded that 2020 would be a poor year for world stock markets.

In fact, stock markets proved remarkably resilient with several of the world’s major markets enjoying excellent years. The South Korean market led the way, rising 31% in the year. China’s Shanghai Composite index was up 14%, Japan’s Nikkei Dow by 16%. India’s stock market rose by a similar amount, while in the US the Dow Jones index was up 7% and the S&P500 was another index to rise 16%. The US tech index – the Nasdaq – rose by an eye-watering 42%.

In Europe Germany’s DAX index rose 4%, but the French market was down and, sadly, the UK’s FTSE-1oo index suffered its worst year since the financial crisis, falling by 14%.

What will happen in 2021? We can’t say and – as we wrote in the introduction – this Report is not intended as financial planning advice. What we can say, is that a long term approach to savings and investments, and regular planning with your financial adviser, will pay off. All markets will have good and bad years but, as we have seen above, good performance can happen in what seems to be the worst of circumstances.

Central banks will continue measures to revive their economies. As we have written before, new companies will find new ways to bring new products to new markets. And we will remain in touch with our clients, be that face-to-face or virtually. Your financial planning remains at the heart of what we do, and we are never more than a phone call or an e-mail away.

3 ways to promote wellness at work…

In a turbulent world, at a time where global issues and local problems compound, mental health should be a top priority within businesses. The Royal College of Psychiatrists report that 1 in 6.8 people experience mental health problems in the workplace and 12.7% of all sickness absence days are due to mental health related concerns. Clearly there is work to be done across the board, and there are steps that can be taken immediately to somewhat alleviate these problems. 

Develop a healthy work environment

An environment that takes wellness and mental health seriously is important, and fostering opportunities for those conversations to take place is key. This can look like putting regular one-on-one meetings in place and providing clear processes for approaching and dealing with the HR department. Regular workload reviews allow space for concerns to be raised and dealt with for the benefit of everybody. Above all, employees should be made to feel comfortable discussing any issues they are facing.

Meetings and surveys are a good way of gaining insight into the thoughts and needs of employees. Surveys can even be anonymous as an information gathering exercise to determine the positive changes that can be made within the workplace. With many employees now working from home, there are fewer opportunities to pick up on any wellness problems passively, so it’s important to actively address the issue.

Encourage work life balance

People need downtime! Some employees may feel that using their allotted annual leave is an inconvenience for their team and their management, so make it a priority that people use the annual leave that is available to them. Without time away from work, fatigue and burnout is inevitable. The same goes for lunch breaks, and regular short breaks throughout the day, especially if the role involves a lot of screen time. 

An increasing number of organisations have adopted mental health days which allow employees to take paid leave on days when they are struggling with their mental health. The peace of mind of knowing that’s an option can reduce stress levels which negatively impact mental health to begin with. Flexible hours are also a good way of providing people the opportunity to fit their work around their lives, rather than the other way around.

Provide wellness education and training

According to BITC’s (Business in The Community) mental health in the workplace report, only 13% of UK line managers have received mental health training, despite 69% believing that supporting employee wellbeing classifies as a core skill.

Consider seeking out and providing specialised mental health training for those in managerial positions. By being better equipped to recognise and subsequently support mental health and wellness problems of colleagues as they arise, the entire team can benefit from a healthier work environment. On top of those intended benefits, according to the Mental Health Foundation, a side effect of better mental health services within the workplace has the potential to save UK businesses £8 billion a year.