Mark Twain is reported to have said
that “if voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.”
For many years that appeared to be
the case with European Union elections, with MEPs unable to propose legislation
and therefore essentially operating as the proverbial rubber stamp. Perhaps
because of this apparent lack of impact, voter turnout has gradually reduced
across the EU, from a high of almost 62% in 1979 to just 42.61% in 2014.
But 2019 could be the year all that
changes. The results of the voting – held across Europe between May 23rd
and 26th – were expected to herald a change, with the ‘Populist’
parties in countries such as Germany, France, Italy and the UK predicted to
make gains.
That turned out to be the case – and
in this special report we look at the results, both in the UK and Europe, what
they might mean for the future and, even more significantly, what they might
mean for your savings and investments.
Before the results: Theresa May admits defeat
There was plenty of drama before the
European elections when Theresa May bowed to the inevitable and announced her
decision to stand down as Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Had she not
done so, the European election results would surely have sealed her fate. Mrs
May had failed to get her proposed Brexit deal through the House of Commons and
her resignation was the signal that she no longer expected there to be any
chance of doing so successfully.
At the time of writing, there are ten
candidates to be our next Prime Minister, with Boris Johnson the somewhat
uneasy favourite. He has stated that the UK will leave the EU on October 31st
‘with or without a deal’ and that has triggered the inevitable ‘Get Boris’
headlines and dire warnings – not least from Chancellor Philip Hammond – about
the consequences of a no deal Brexit.
Will the electorate heed what appears
to be a very clear message from the European election results? No doubt we will
find out over the weeks and months ahead, as the Conservative leadership race
comes to a conclusion and the direction of the party becomes clearer.
Currently, however, as we have commented below, ‘crisis’ is barely an adequate
word to describe the current state of the Conservative party, and it is
difficult to see a way out of it.
The UK results
The results in the UK – among the
main parties – were as follows (with the figures showing the seats won and the
percentage of the vote gained)
The Brexit Party (TBP) 29 31.6%
Liberal Democrats 16 20.3%
Labour 10 14.1%
Greens 7 12.1%
Conservatives 4 9.1%
SNP 3 3.6%
The immediate conclusions are
obvious. Whatever your personal feelings, it is a remarkable result for Nigel
Farage and The Brexit Party. A political party which barely existed two months
ago not only won comfortably, it is now – along with Angela Merkel’s Christian
Democrats – the joint-largest party in the European Parliament.
It was also a good result for the
Liberal Democrats and the Greens, which mirrored the ‘Green Surge’ across
Europe. It is a bad result for the Labour Party and a disastrous result for the
Conservatives, the party’s worst result in a national election since 1832.
Very evidently, those parties which
had a clear message did well: the main parties in the UK – if we can still call
them that – did not have a clear message and did correspondingly badly.
How much should we read into the
results in the UK? Was it a victory for Leave? A victory for Remain? A clear
indication of the wish for a second referendum? The various parties and the
commentators tried to spin the results every way they could, with both sides
claiming victory.
Whether the results give a clue to a
possible second referendum result or a future general election seems to be open
to some level of doubt. The UK turnout was up on 2014’s turnout (35.6%), but
only to 36.9%. In total, 17.2m voted – less than voted ‘Leave’ in the 2016
referendum – so as a guide to the future, it may be best to treat the UK’s
European election results cautiously.
So what happens next in the UK?
Our 73 new MEPs
will take their place in the European parliament and attention will turn back
to the race to be the next Prime Minister. Theresa May will formally resign on
Friday June 7th and potential candidates must be nominated and
seconded by June 10th.
Conservative MPs
will then vote on the candidates, holding a succession of votes until – under
the current rules – only two candidates remain, who are then put forward to the
party membership. There are some suggestions that the rules might be changed to
allow four candidates to go forward, with an eventual winner being declared
before the end of July.
And now we come
to the word ‘crisis’. The European election results would appear to strengthen
the hand of those Conservative candidates prepared to countenance leaving the
EU without a deal. But there is very evidently no majority in parliament for
leaving without a deal, so the candidates likely to appeal to the Conservative
voter base could also be the candidates likely to precipitate a General
Election. Here, though, is the crux of the matter as, going by current election
performance, if a General Election were to be held tomorrow, the Conservative
party would likely face losing hundreds of seats. Quite how our governing party
finds a way forward from here is currently anyone’s guess, although we will at
least start to hear ideas from the leadership candidates now that it is an open
race for Prime Minister.
The results in Europe
First of all,
more people voted than in the UK – the overall turnout figure across Europe was
51%, marking the first time turnout has increased year on year in European
election history.
But, in many
ways, it was exactly the same story as in the UK with impressive results for
nationalist parties and the Greens, and the parties which have traditionally
formed the ‘Grand Coalition’ – the Centre-Right and Centre-Left groupings –
seeing their numbers significantly reduced.
In Germany,
Angela Merkel’s CDU slipped from 35% of the vote in 2014 to 28.7%, with the
centre-left Social Democrats faring even worse as their vote fell from 27% to
15.6%. The right wing AfD won 10.8% of the vote – perhaps not doing quite as
well as expected – but the Greens had a stellar result, easily taking second
place with 20.7%.
The big news in
France was that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party defeated Emmanuel Macron –
who had campaigned on his personal vision of an even more integrated Europe –
by 24% to 22.5%.
In Italy, Deputy
Prime Minister Matteo Salvini stated that “Europe is changing” as his populist
League party won 34.3% of the vote to comfortably top the poll. There were also
nationalist gains in both Hungary and Poland, while in Greece, the ruling
Syriza party was well beaten, prompting Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to call
an early general election.
How did the markets react?
It was not quite
a case of the elections having absolutely no impact, but neither the pound nor
the stock market have been sent into a tailspin by the European election
results.
The FT-SE 100
index of leading shares closed April at 7,418. At the time of writing (8:30 on
Tuesday morning), it stands down 1.6% at 7,293. Germany’s DAX index closed
April at 12,344 and is now at 12,089 – a fall of 2%. But you would suspect that
both these falls have rather more to do with the re-escalation of the US/China
trade dispute and its consequences for world trade, than they have to do with
the European election results.
The pound, having
ended April at $1.3041, had fallen to around $1.27 amid the continuing
uncertainty over Brexit and Theresa May’s resignation. At 8am on Monday, it was
trading at $1.2742 and is now trading at $1.2675. Again, the fact that Brexit
may not be settled any time soon appears to be impacting the pound far more
than the election results.
What does all this mean for your savings and investments?
As we have said
many times in our notes and bulletins to clients, stock markets like certainty.
Over the last three years, certainty is the one thing we haven’t had and we are
certainly not going to see any certainty in the immediate future.
We won’t know who
the new Prime Minister is until the end of July, at which point there will be
just three months to go until the latest deadline for leaving the European
Union. All the noises from Europe are that the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-negotiated, so the new PM will
face three months of tough negotiating – in both Brussels and Westminster.
Meanwhile, the
world will keep turning. As George Osborne always said when he was Chancellor,
events around the world are at least as important to the UK economy as events
at home, and – as we have mentioned
above – the US/China trade dispute continues to rumble on. And when the dust
has settled from these elections, several European economies will continue to
have fundamental problems.
So there will, as
always, be plenty of bumps in the road ahead. However, we have called this
report ‘A Clear Message’: having stated that those parties who had a clear
message did well in the European elections, let us leave you with an equally
clear message.
We will always be here to keep you up to date
with developments and to answer any questions you may have. Remember, too, that
saving and investing is a long term commitment. After the European election
results it appears that some of our politicians may not be here for the long
term: rest assured that your financial advisers very definitely will be.
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